The Ledger · Public record

Sell in May

Spec frozenspec 10c0…0839 ✓ verifiedby houseForward-tested 2 days1d

Execution model · Paper trading on end-of-day data: signals are evaluated on the daily close and filled per the strategy's entry price field with the same slippage assumption as backtests. The deployed spec is frozen (hash-verified); the ledger is append-only.

Share on X

Original backtest (in-sample, 2016 →)

CAGR
6.40%
Total return
+93%
Max drawdown
33.7%
Sharpe
0.50

Live forward test (out-of-sample, since 2026-08-03)

Forward return
+0.00%
Max drawdown
0.0%
Days live
2
Ledger signals
0

Forward paper equity

Drawdown

Signals ledger

append-only — rows can never be edited or deleted

No signals yet — this strategy is waiting for its rules to fire on live end-of-day data. That's the ledger being honest.
Frozen strategy rules (immutable since deployment)
{
  "backtest_timeframe": "1d",
  "description": "Long SPY November-April only; cash May-October.",
  "entry_price_field": "close",
  "entry_rule_long": "(month >= 11) | (month <= 4)",
  "exit_rule": "(month >= 5) & (month <= 10)",
  "indicators": [],
  "max_holding_days": 0,
  "max_positions": 1,
  "name": "Sell in May",
  "position_size_mode": "notional_pct",
  "position_size_pct": 100,
  "stop_loss_pct": 0,
  "symbols": [
    "SPY"
  ],
  "take_profit_pct": 0
}

Forward testing has no survivorship bias — signals are recorded as they happen, on the symbols the strategy actually watches. Historical simulation for research and education. Not financial advice. Past performance does not predict future results.