qullamaggie breakout backtest

What the numbers mean

Momentum Breakout asks for three things at once: a stock already up more than thirty percent over the prior quarter, a close above its own fifty-day high, and volume well above its twenty-day average. You arrive late by construction — the entry fires only after the move is obvious to everyone. Over the tested decade, on this universe, arriving late produced plenty of activity and very little accumulated progress, plus a drawdown deep enough that the ride mattered more than the destination.

The exit is where the shape comes from. A close below the ten-day moving average ends the trade, and for names like TSLA, PLTR, or NET an ordinary pullback inside an intact uptrend crosses that line constantly. There is no profit target and no holding limit, so that cross is the only door a winner leaves by — the rare position that should pay for ten small losses gets cut early. The eight-percent stop applies one distance to every symbol regardless of how far each normally travels. Fewer than half the trades work, and the winners finish only barely large enough to cover the losers.

Concentration supplies the rest. Twenty percent per position across five slots, drawn from nineteen correlated high-beta names, means the book fills in one regime and empties in the next — which is how a per-trade stop that sounds tight sits beside a portfolio drawdown many times its size. Beside this text, set the annualized return against the worst drawdown, see how close the profit factor sits to break-even, and read the Sharpe as the verdict on both.